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title : Forecast Correction |
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Due to an editing error during the production of the "MergeGlobal 2003 World Air Freight Forecast" published in the May edition of Air Cargo World, certain charts in the Forecast were printed with incorrect information even though the correct data had been provided.
In one instance, a chart showing the "Share of Regional Air Freight Markets by Shipper Industry," the share of Asia-North America traffic held by Apparel and Footwear shippers was incorrectly listed as 15 percent when it should have been listed as 23 percent.
In seven other regional charts - Europe-North America, Asia-North America, Asia-Europe, Latin America-North America, Europe-Middle East and Africa-Europe -- color bars denoting annual air freight traffic moving in each direction were reversed. This reversal created the wrong picture of the balance of traffic in these world markets.
The errors in the charts came during this magazine's production of the Forecast. We deeply regret the mistakes and are reprinting the charts here to make sure that readers have the correct information before them.
To briefly summarize the overall Forecast, MergeGlobal estimates that in the 2003-2007 period, cargo traffic in terms of daily tonnage will grow at a rate of 5.8 percent per year.
This growth follows a five-year period that included the Asia currency crisis of 1997-98, the heights of the technology boom and the depths of the technology and terror-related bust of 2001, ending with an average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent.
After mild 3.6 percent growth last year, MergeGlobal projects 4.7 percent growth this year and 5.6 percent growth in 2004. The growth will not be spread evenly, as North America and Europe show signs of their size and maturity with relatively small growth after bearing the greatest weight of the weakness between 1997 and 2002. By contrast, the largest growth markets will be tied to Asia.
MergeGlobal forecasts that intra-Asia tonnage, which grew at a 3.2 percent average annual rate in the historical period, will grow 7.4 percent in the 2003-2007 forecast period. The growing market for express services will lead to a 14.1 percent average annual growth rate for package volume in the intra-Asia market.
The forecast assumes that world economic growth remains positive but unexciting, averaging 2.9 percent "real" growth, after removing the effects of inflation, during the 2003-2007 period.
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